So, now it's almost official. What everyone knew, but wouldn't say, we are going to have to vote again on the Lisbon Treaty. Well that's what Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France has reportedly told some French deputies from his own party. Possibly in the second half of next year too. Quelle surprise, you might say and deja vu while you're at it. Yes it's almost like NiceI and NiceII all over again. First the protest vote at the first referendum then in the second referendum after a period of national reconsideration a yes vote to pass it through.
As someone who did vote "Yes" in the recent Lisbon referendum, I couldn't really see what all the fuss was about. Most of the issues were hashed over in the two previous Nice referendums to death, so I was not sure what people like Libertas were going on about at all. Let's be clear, we are now part of a 500 million strong economic and political union called The European Union. We share a strong currency called the Euro. This EU has expanded quite considerably in recent years and will do so again in the coming years. From time to time, it is necessary to change the way this vast union is run in the interests of increased efficiency. So why all the fuss about the Lisbon Treaty? Was it just a protest vote against the Government. Quite possibly so.
As to whether a second referendum would be passed say this time next year, I would venture that it would. After all, we don't want to be the odd man out of Europe. Do we? I don't think we do, so for this reason alone I would like to see the odds our esteemed bookmakers would give on a second referendum being passed, I might be tempted to put my first bet ever on something happening.
As for reports that Nicolas Sarkozy mentioned to some of his deputies that Ireland would have to vote again, I am not surprised either. It is the obvious solution to an Irish problem that has worked before. Incidentally, Mr Sarkozy according to reports had a cracking good start to his international relations mission at the weekend when he had a whole gang of Middle Eastern delegations in Paris. Seems the French were able to get these assorted enemies like the Syrians and the Israelis to dine in the same room together. I have heard comments elsewhere that this is all in aid of Europe gettting a bigger toehold in the Middle East for resources like oil,gas and solarpower. All I can say is, why not? The Americans and the Chinese are there, why not us Europeans?
Tuesday, 15 July 2008
Saturday, 12 July 2008
Irish Banking Shares
Over the last year we have seen a major dimunition in the value of Irish shares generally. In particular though, the Irish banks have been affected more than most. In recent weeks speculation has surfaced in the national press about a possible takeover of Bank Of Ireland due to it's low share price. You may have heard or saw the ISEQ fall seemingly day by day for the past months and wondered about your pension fund and how it is doing.
Well let me answer this simply. Not well. Not this year or last for that matter. But then the question you should be asking yourself is why am I still putting money into a falling market? Why have I not switched my pension fund to bonds long ago? Ok, you don't know anything about stocks and shares, I understand. I am only an observer either.
Anyway there is no point in crying over spilt milk. The horse has bolted and so on. Is there something positive that you can learn from this last period of financial turbulence. Well I think there is; that is to pay attention to your pension fund more closely. Do you know anything about the investments that your money is being used for. If you don't, now might be a good time to go nosing about and finding out.
Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating that you switch your pension fund into cash bonds now. That would not be wise, as it would crystallise your loses. Stay the course with what is already invested in stockmarkets and be consoled that any new investments being made on your behalf are, given such low stock prices currently, probably good value for money. We must retain faith in the markets and hope that in time they will recover.
Well let me answer this simply. Not well. Not this year or last for that matter. But then the question you should be asking yourself is why am I still putting money into a falling market? Why have I not switched my pension fund to bonds long ago? Ok, you don't know anything about stocks and shares, I understand. I am only an observer either.
Anyway there is no point in crying over spilt milk. The horse has bolted and so on. Is there something positive that you can learn from this last period of financial turbulence. Well I think there is; that is to pay attention to your pension fund more closely. Do you know anything about the investments that your money is being used for. If you don't, now might be a good time to go nosing about and finding out.
Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating that you switch your pension fund into cash bonds now. That would not be wise, as it would crystallise your loses. Stay the course with what is already invested in stockmarkets and be consoled that any new investments being made on your behalf are, given such low stock prices currently, probably good value for money. We must retain faith in the markets and hope that in time they will recover.
Friday, 11 July 2008
Our Economy
I will make no excuses for publishing a second blog on the same day, as I believe the subject to be too important to be ignored any longer. That is, our economy, or rather the wholescale negative litany of media reports about it. Let me firstly say, that yes, economically two years ago things seemed better. Well they seemed better, but sometimes the best nights out seem better at 2 in the morning when the whole place is hopping than at 2.40 when the bouncers go round bellowing "All right folks". But would anyone disagree the following morning with a pain "in a chean" that it was a good thing that somebody turned off the music and switched on the lights. Very few, I suspect.
So be it with our economy. It had to cool down, particularly the construction sector. Did anyone really want in their heart of hearts to have ordinary semi detached houses in Leitrim commanding half a million euros in the not so distant future. Obviously anyone selling, of course, but the rest of us?
I would say that far from being a bad thing altogether, there are some good and necessary things that happen in an economic downturn. Firstly a sense of fiscal reality returns to everyone's finances. People actually think about a purchase before they swipe and run off with their latest fancy. That is they weigh up the pros and cons of a prospective spending splurge with some degree of logical thinking vis a vis do I actually need this big a television or could I do without a fourth night out in a row?
Secondly, people use what they already have, more. So instead of changing your car every two years, you change it every four, say. In this way you increase the usage of this major purchase by one hundred per cent. If you can avert your eyes every January when the shiny new reg cars start wiggling their number plates, it may be found that the car you are driving is, with due care and attention perfectly capable of being "nice" for another two years at least. It's amazing what a wash or even a bit of turtlewax can do for any car.
Thirdly, people actually begin to appreciate the value of money again. You may wonder how anyone could cease to do such a thing. Well unfortunately, it does happen. Trust me, I speak from experience. As any currency trader will tell you, every trade you make is posited on the theory that what you are getting for handing over your money is of more value than the notes or coins themselves. So, say when you buy a latte coffee for 3.50 you are implying that the rather bitter brown liquid you will consume is worth more than 3.50 of your hard earned money.
Now don't get me wrong. I am not a complete polyanna either or a character from Voltaire's Candide. Just like medicine, there are unpleasant side effects. Ask anyone who got made redundant lately. But once you accept that the boom was unsustainable and that a correction was inevitable, it will be easier to accept the unpleasant side effects of our economic autumn/winter. It need not necessarily be a winter of discontent either. Let us wait it out, as we do every winter, with hope in our hearts, looking forward to the first green shoots of Spring.
So be it with our economy. It had to cool down, particularly the construction sector. Did anyone really want in their heart of hearts to have ordinary semi detached houses in Leitrim commanding half a million euros in the not so distant future. Obviously anyone selling, of course, but the rest of us?
I would say that far from being a bad thing altogether, there are some good and necessary things that happen in an economic downturn. Firstly a sense of fiscal reality returns to everyone's finances. People actually think about a purchase before they swipe and run off with their latest fancy. That is they weigh up the pros and cons of a prospective spending splurge with some degree of logical thinking vis a vis do I actually need this big a television or could I do without a fourth night out in a row?
Secondly, people use what they already have, more. So instead of changing your car every two years, you change it every four, say. In this way you increase the usage of this major purchase by one hundred per cent. If you can avert your eyes every January when the shiny new reg cars start wiggling their number plates, it may be found that the car you are driving is, with due care and attention perfectly capable of being "nice" for another two years at least. It's amazing what a wash or even a bit of turtlewax can do for any car.
Thirdly, people actually begin to appreciate the value of money again. You may wonder how anyone could cease to do such a thing. Well unfortunately, it does happen. Trust me, I speak from experience. As any currency trader will tell you, every trade you make is posited on the theory that what you are getting for handing over your money is of more value than the notes or coins themselves. So, say when you buy a latte coffee for 3.50 you are implying that the rather bitter brown liquid you will consume is worth more than 3.50 of your hard earned money.
Now don't get me wrong. I am not a complete polyanna either or a character from Voltaire's Candide. Just like medicine, there are unpleasant side effects. Ask anyone who got made redundant lately. But once you accept that the boom was unsustainable and that a correction was inevitable, it will be easier to accept the unpleasant side effects of our economic autumn/winter. It need not necessarily be a winter of discontent either. Let us wait it out, as we do every winter, with hope in our hearts, looking forward to the first green shoots of Spring.
Our Irish Summer
Let me be clear, I like a long hot summer as much as anyone does. I also like the smell of freshly mown grass, the hum of flies in the bushes, the brilliant blue of water on a sunny day and of course the pleasant sensation of heat. I like all these things, but I am getting a little tired of the current fashion of complaining about this year's weather.
Is it really as bad as we make out? I am the glass half full man and I see as my duty to examine, where necessary, the positive aspects of any situation. So let me begin. Well there are a few positive things that we will all benefit from due to the lack of sunshine this year. Number one; we will avoid getting sunburned, especially at GAA matches in July. Number two; we will eat less ice cream and therefore put on less weight. Number three; we will not sweat as much either when walking or exercising.
Now you may scoff at these as being minor pluses on an otherwise negative balance sheet, but I beg to differ. I believe they are significant positive benefits to a wettish summer. The fourth major positive aspect to our current weather that I have not mentioned is water availability. In short there will be no drought this year. No parched lawns or flowerbeds begging for a drop of moisture. No hosepipe bans. This year you can wash your car (and everything else with the power washer to your heart's content). So away with negativity and lets get some balance on the topic, please. All I ask is that you consider some positive aspects as well as all the negative ones. That's all, because the old saying is true. Every cloud really does have a silver lining. So until next time, try and look at the glass and see the liquid still in it, instead of noticing what is missing.
Is it really as bad as we make out? I am the glass half full man and I see as my duty to examine, where necessary, the positive aspects of any situation. So let me begin. Well there are a few positive things that we will all benefit from due to the lack of sunshine this year. Number one; we will avoid getting sunburned, especially at GAA matches in July. Number two; we will eat less ice cream and therefore put on less weight. Number three; we will not sweat as much either when walking or exercising.
Now you may scoff at these as being minor pluses on an otherwise negative balance sheet, but I beg to differ. I believe they are significant positive benefits to a wettish summer. The fourth major positive aspect to our current weather that I have not mentioned is water availability. In short there will be no drought this year. No parched lawns or flowerbeds begging for a drop of moisture. No hosepipe bans. This year you can wash your car (and everything else with the power washer to your heart's content). So away with negativity and lets get some balance on the topic, please. All I ask is that you consider some positive aspects as well as all the negative ones. That's all, because the old saying is true. Every cloud really does have a silver lining. So until next time, try and look at the glass and see the liquid still in it, instead of noticing what is missing.
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